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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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