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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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