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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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