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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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