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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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