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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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