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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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