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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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