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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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