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Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
 The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, or 5.2%, m-o-m to $79.21/b, while the NYMEX WTI first-month contract fell by $3.49, or 4.5%, m-o-m to average $73.37/b. The DME Oman first-month contract fell by $3.63, or 4.4%, m-o-m to settle at $78.34/b. The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread narrowed in March by 84¢ m-o-m to average $5.84/b. The futures forward curves of ICE Brent and DME Oman flattened slightly in March, but remained in backwardation. However, the NYMEX WTI price structure remained in contango, although the nearest time spread contracted m-o-m. Hedge funds and other money managers heavily cut bullish positions in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI last month.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up slightly to 3.3%, given better-than-anticipated economic performance in 2H22 in various key economies. The 2023 global economic growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%. For the US, the economic growth forecast is unchanged at 2.1% for 2022 and 1.2% for 2023. Similarly, the Euro-zone’s economic growth forecast remains at 3.5% for 2022 and 0.8% for 2023. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 remains at 1%, while growth for 2023 is revised down to 1% from 1.2%. China’s economic growth forecast remains at 3% for 2022 and 5.2% for 2023. India’s 2022 economic growth estimate remains at 6.7%, with the forecast for 2023 at 5.6%. Brazil’s economic growth estimate remains at 2.9% for 2022 and is also unchanged at 1% for 2023. Russia’s contraction estimate is unchanged at 2.1% in 2022 and is expected to be followed by a smaller contraction of 0.5% in 2023, unchanged from last month. Although some growth momentum from 2H22 is expected to carry over into 1H23, the global economy will continue to navigate through challenges including high inflation, higher interest rates particularly in the Euro-zone and the US, and high debt levels in many regions.
World Oil Demand
The world oil demand growth estimate for 2022 remains at 2.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from last month’s assessment. For 2023, it is also unchanged from the last month’s assessment at 2.3 mb/d. There are minor downward adjustments reflecting the latest developments in the OECD region, primarily in OECD Americas and OECD Europe. However, the stronger-than-expected demand seen in non-OECD in January and February necessitated some upward revisions. Oil demand in the OECD is forecast to increase by 0.1 mb/d in 2023, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by 2.2 mb/d
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC liquids supply growth estimate for 2022 remains at 1.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 were US, Russia, Canada, Guyana, China and Brazil, while the largest declines were from Norway and Thailand. For 2023, non-OPEC liquids supply growth remains broadly unchanged from last month and is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d. The main drivers of liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Brazil, Norway, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, while the decline is expected primarily in Russia. Large uncertainties remain over the impact of the output prospective for US shale in 2023. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d in 2022 to average 5.4 mb/d and by 50 tb/d to average 5.4 mb/d in 2023. OPEC-13 crude oil production in March dropped by 86 tb/d m-o-m to average 28.80 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In March, refinery margins regained limited ground, following sharp losses seen the previous month. A contraction in product balances in the Atlantic Basin, due to the onset of heavy refinery maintenance along with product output declines in France due to a nationwide energy workers strike action, led to pressure on product inventories over the month and provided support for product crack spreads. In addition, a decline in feedstock prices further contributed to stronger refinery margins across all main regions. Global refinery processing rates fell further in March, losing nearly 259 tb/d, according to preliminary estimates. In the coming month, refinery intakes are expected to remain under pressure on strong offline capacity, which is projected to peak in the coming month.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates continued to improve in March, with m-o-m gains across most monitored routes. VLCCs saw the sharpest increase, rising by 45% on the Middle East-to-East route, as renewed buying from China strengthened rates. Suezmax spot freight rates remained at high levels, up 20% m-o-m on the US Gulf-toEurope route. Aframax rates rebounded from the previous month’s decline, with spot freight rates on the intra-Med route up 23% m-o-m. In the clean tanker market, West of Suez spot freight rates were at 29%, supported by strong performance in the Mediterranean. East of Suez rates fell 10% on average m-o-m, amid a winding down of winter product demand in the Far East.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data shows US crude exports set a fresh record high of 4.8 mb/d in March, while US product exports rebounded to average 6.3 mb/d. China’s crude imports in February partially recovered from the decline at the start of the year to average around 10.7 mb/d. China’s product exports also picked up, averaging a robust 1.7 mb/d. India’s crude imports were at their strongest in over 10 months, averaging just shy of 5.0 mb/d in February. India’s product exports also returned to relatively robust levels, averaging 1.4 mb/d. Japan’s crude imports were broadly unchanged m-o-m at 2.7 mb/d in February. Japan’s product exports, including LPG, hit a five-month high in February. Preliminary estimates for March show crude and refined product imports into OECD Europe declining as a workers’ strike in France disrupted port activities and refinery operations, curtailing trade
flows.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary February 2023 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks increase by 14.1 mb m-o-m. At 2,865 mb, they were 237 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 18 mb higher than the latest fiveyear average, but 54 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude stocks increased m-o-m by 20.9 mb, while product stocks fell by 6.8 mb m-o-m. At 1,434 mb, OECD crude stocks were 172 mb higher than the same time a year ago, and 49 mb higher than the latest five-year average, but 14 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,432 mb, representing a surplus of 65 mb from the same time a year ago, though they were 30 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 40 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose m-o-m by 1.0 day in February to stand at 62.9 days. This is 4.9 days above the February 2022 level, but 1.8 days less than the latest five-year average and 0.3 days higher than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 remained unchanged from last month’s assessment to stand at 28.4 mb/d. This is around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 also remained unchanged from the previous assessment to stand at 29.3 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 17 July 23
APPROVED AMMONIA-FUELED CONTAINERSHIP - BENEFITS AND RISKS: REED SMITH
Following the news in Offshore Energy that Korea Maritime Consultants has secured approval in principle from the American Bureau of Shipping for it ...
Friday, 14 July 23
CLEAN COAL USE KEY TO DEEP CUTS IN EMISSIONS, STABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY - CHINA DAILY
China must push for the clean use of coal and step up integration of the dirty fuel with carbon capture, utilization and storage to achieve sustain ...
Thursday, 13 July 23
VIETNAM'S COAL EMISSIONS PRIMED FOR SURGE AFTER IMPORTS JUMP - REUTERS
Vietnam’s thermal power emissions are primed for a steep climb this summer after the country’s imports of thermal coal soared to their ...
Monday, 26 June 23
COAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION UP IN 2022 - EUROSTAT
In 2022, EU coal production and consumption continued to increase, reaching 349 million tonnes (+5% compared with the previous year) and 454 millio ...
Wednesday, 21 June 23
QATAR STRIKES SECOND BIG LNG SUPPLY DEAL WITH CHINA - REUTERS
Qatar on Tuesday secured its second large gas supply deal with a Chinese state-controlled company in less than a year, putting Asia clearly ahead i ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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