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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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