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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
 We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should help solve the country’s real estate crisis and boost bulk demand.
However, demand growth could weaken to 1-2% in 2024 due to an expected reduction in coal shipments. Import demand should fall as India and China continue to boost domestic mining and Europe transitions away from fossil fuels.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates global economic growth of 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024. The Chinese economy is now estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2023, a 0.8 percentage point increase over the IMF’s previous forecast.
The dry bulk fleet is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024. Deliveries remain limited amid a small orderbook at 7.5% of the fleet.
Supply is estimated to grow by 0.5-1.5% less than the fleet in 2023 and 2024 due to lower speeds caused by compliance with EEXI and CII regulations.
The supply/demand balance should improve in 2023, although risks will remain in 2024. We expect rates to start recovering as demand picks up in China.
Capesizes should benefit from a recovery in iron ore demand, while panamax ships are most exposed to a drop in coal shipments.
We expect freight rates to improve from the second half of 2023 onwards as a pick-up in demand in China drives an improvement in the supply/demand balance. Even though we expect demand growth to slow in 2024 as Europe cuts coal shipments and import demand from India and China stabilises, supply is still expected to grow at a slower pace and market conditions may still improve marginally. The bulk carrier fleet should grow by 2.7% in 2023 and by 2.0% in 2024 amid limited deliveries. Additionally, we expect environmental regulations to reduce supply growth by 0.5-1.5% as sailing speeds fall. Overall, supply is expected to increase by 1-2% in 2023 and by 0.5- 1.5% in 2024, while demand growth is predicted at 1.5-2.5% in 2023 and 1-2% in 2024. The expected recovery in iron ore shipments should result in a welcome rebound in capesize market conditions that have suffered from the low iron ore volumes throughout 2022. Conversely, the expected loss of coal shipments in 2024 could be a cause for concern for panamax ships since coal accounts for over half of their volume. The predicted improvement in the overall supply/demand balance is quite marginal as demand will outpace supply by only 0.5 pp in both 2023 and 2024. As such, the improvement is still vulnerable to a variety of risks that could still affect the demand outlook for 2023 and 2024. A slower-than-anticipated economic recovery in China or a delayed resolution of the real estate crisis could have a direct and significant impact on demand, thus impacting overall conditions for the dry bulk market.
Source: BIMCO
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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