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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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