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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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