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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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