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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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