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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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