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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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