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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- The University of Queensland
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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