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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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