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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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