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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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