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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
Friday, 02 December 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TOWARD US$ 281.48 A TON AS DEMAND DROPS WORLDWIDE
COALspot.com: The cost of coal is falling so fast that it is beginning to put real money back in the pockets of end-users.
Indonesia ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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