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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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