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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 November 22
INDONESIA’S BUMI RESOURCES TARGETS 2023 COAL OUTPUT OF 80 MLN TONNES - REUTERS
Indonesian coal miner PT Bumi Resources Tbk BUMI.JKis eyeing a 10% increase in output to 80 million tonnes next year amid expectations for more fav ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
TANKERS: LONGER HAULS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTH - BIMCO
Highlights
A rebound in the dirty tanker trade has led the Baltic Exchange Dirty Index (BDTI) to increase by 64% since our last report from mid ...
Wednesday, 30 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping, although a conservative and innovation adverse industry, is currently in a transition period of digital transformation. According to a su ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
INDIA TO RECEIVE FIRST LNG CARGO FROM INDONESIA’S TANGGUH LNG - REUTERS
India will receive its first cargo from Indonesia’s Tangguh liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Dahej terminal on Monday, according to a ...
Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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