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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
AUSTRALIA'S CORONADO GLOBAL SEES COAL PRICES RISING ON RESUMING CHINA IMPORTS - REUTERS
Australia’s Coronado Global Resources said on Tuesday resuming metallurgical coal imports to China would likely push sea-borne coal prices hi ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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