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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S MAJOR COAL-PRODUCING PROVINCE ACCELERATES DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION - XINHUA
At Chindata Group’s big-data industrial park in Lingqiu County of Datong City, hundreds of thousands of servers are running round-the-clock t ...
Monday, 23 January 23
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE SEES COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE IN 2022 - XINHUA
North China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi saw its coal production hit 1.31 billion tonnes in 2022, up 8.7 percent year on year, local author ...
Wednesday, 18 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
From Feb 5, another price cap will be introduced to Russian fuels and oil products, adding to the one for crude oil, already in place from Dec. 3. ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
FRAUD IS THE BIGGEST THREAT TO CARGO LOSSES - TT CLUB
The almost exclusive use of online facilities to process business transactions allows a myriad of fraudulent pursuits to find opportunities within ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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