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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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