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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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