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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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