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Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progress, as well as tensions in diplomatic relations between China and the US which could result in trade disruptions. According to USDA, global production of soybeans for the 2022/23 season is forecast at 385.04 million tons, up 7.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, China’s highly anticipated recovery will also be reflected in the normalization of the country’s soybean consumption and imports after falling for two consecutive years. More specifically, according to Casde’s (China Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates) latest estimates, the country’s imports for 2023 are projected to grow 8.3% y-o-y to 95.2 million tons.
In Brazil, the harvest season is currently ongoing. However, the country’s highly anticipated monster crop is dampened by harvest delays due to unfavorable weather conditions. According to CONAB, Brazil’s soybeans were 15.4% harvested nationally on Feb-13, which is well behind last year’s pace of 25%. Overall, Brazil's soybean output is projected slightly lower than previous forecasts at 154.0 million tons amid harvest delays and lower quality caused by adverse wet weather in significant Central-West and Southeast regions. Soybean exports are forecast at 92.8 million tons. Harvest delays have resulted in lower exports to China during January and February. Chinese imports from Brazil are estimated to recover from mid-April when the record crop will start making its way to the country.
In the US, following unusually low temperatures registered in mid-October across the soy belt, the favorable weather conditions during the late season and the current rapid progress of the harvest are estimated to result in healthy production of 4.33 billion bushels, slightly above last season’s output of 4.14 billion bushels, according to USDA forecasts, while exports are estimated at 1.99 billion bushels. Following a slow start to the season, US exports have taken off in January as Brazil is in the early stages of collecting its record harvest. US exports to China are buoyed by a bullish combination of delayed harvest in Brazil and a historic drought in Argentina resulting in lower yields. In January, the US exported 5.5 million tons to China, a figure that stands 33.7% above the 5-year average. In February, exports will remain firm according to our data, close to the 5-year high. Even if US exports slow down when Brazil’s harvest progresses, total bookings are enough to maintain at least moderate shipments in the short term. However, fears are lingering following the shoot-down of the Chinese balloon earlier this month which could possibly create tensions and disrupt current purchases.
In Argentina, total soybean output is forecast to be 40.6 million tons, down from 4.3 million tons in 2021/22, due to historically low vegetation levels across the Pampas, in what could be translated into the toughest growing season in history, especially for Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Given that the production damage from the early season delays will be felt soon and that a probable growth curve shift could cause crops to miss their ideal growing windows, the chances of a major yield recovery in these two crucial regions seem poor to none. The current unfavorable fundamentals will be reflected in limited soybean supply for export. More specifically, if unfavorable weather persists, the country could turn to the US for imports as it did in 2018 after experiencing similar weather conditions. In addition, the country has also reportedly purchased an unusual amount of 200,000-300,000 soybeans from Brazil, according to Anec.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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