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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 02 October 22
MISC STRENGTHENS ITS PARTNERSHIP WITH SEARIVER MARITIME
MISC Berhad (MISC) today announced that its subsidiaries Polaris LNG Three Pte. Ltd. and Polaris LNG Four Pte. Ltd. have secured long-term time cha ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This week, focus turns to the 38th APPEC Conference, where leading professionals from the global oil industry will discuss the future key drivers o ...
Thursday, 29 September 22
HIGH COAL PRICES REMAIN A CONCERN FOR DOMESTIC NON-FERROUS METAL COMPANIES - ICRA
According to ICRA on Monday, the high price of coal will have a negative effect on the profitability of domestic non-ferrous metal companies that m ...
Tuesday, 27 September 22
14% INCREASE IN EUROPEAN COAL DEMAND TO BE SHORT-TERM TREND - WOOD MACKENZIE
European seaborne thermal coal demand is projected to increase 14% or 12 million metric tonnes (Mt) this year to 98 Mt as it grapples with the curr ...
Friday, 23 September 22
CHINA DIGS DEEP TO RAISE COAL OUTPUT TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal production has surged this year as the government seeks to improve energy security by reducing dependence on imports and amassin ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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