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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 05 October 22
BUNKER PRICES DOWN AGAIN; IS THERE MORE TO COME? - INTEGR8 FUELS
It’s the economy…..”
VLSFO prices are now back to levels at the start of this year. After all the extremes of thi ...
Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russ ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in thei ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
OIL PRICES COULD SOON RETURN TO $100 AS OPEC+ CONSIDERS ‘HISTORIC’ CUT, ANALYSTS SAY - CNBC
An influential alliance of some of the world’s most powerful oil producers is reportedly considering their largest output cut since the start ...
Tuesday, 04 October 22
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGE AGAIN TO RECORD HIGH
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference reached another record high in October as Russia's war in Ukraine continues to spark a surge in c ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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