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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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