We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 12 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2022 has been remarkable.
Focusing only on Tankers and Bulkers, such v ...
Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation ...
Monday, 10 October 22
GLOBAL CEOS EXPECT IMPENDING RECESSION TO BE 'SHORT AND SHARP,' POLL SHOWS - CNBC
Global CEOs are anticipating a recession in the next 12 months, according to a new survey by professional services firm KPMG, which said more than ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
AUSTRALIA’S RESOURCES REVENUE TO HIT RECORD AMID UKRAINE CONFLICT - REUTERS
Australian resources and energy export earnings are forecast to jump 7% to a record A$450 billion ($290 billion) this fiscal year, bolstered by soa ...
Thursday, 06 October 22
COAL INDIA ASKED TO ENHANCE SUPPLY TO THERMAL POWER PLANTS - IANS
With the festival season round the corner, Coal India Ltd. has been directed by the government to scale up dispatch to thermal power plants.
&n ...
|
|
|
Showing 211 to 215 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
|
| |
| |
|
