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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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Showing 206 to 210 news of total 6871 |
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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