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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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