We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
|
|
|
Showing 231 to 235 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
|
| |
| |
|
