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Thursday, 13 October 22
OPEC DOWNGRADES CRUDE OIL DEMAND, AS WORLD ECONOMY ENTERS SLOWDOWN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined m-o-m by $6.58 in September, or 6.5%, to average $95.32/b. Pressure from equity market selling, central bank interest rate hikes, and economic outlook concerns weighed on crude futures prices. The ICE Brent front-month declined $7.17, or 7.3%, to average $90.57/b in September while NYMEX WTI fell by $7.68, or 8.4%, to average $83.80/b. The Brent/WTI futures spread widened again m-o-m, expanding 51¢ to average $6.77/b. The market structure of all three major crude benchmarks remained in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers resumed selling in both major futures contracts — ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI — especially during the last week of September.
World Economy
Global economic growth has entered into a period of significant uncertainty and deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, amid intensifying challenges including high inflation levels, tightening monetary policies by major central banks, rising interest rates and persisting supply chain issues. Moreover, geopolitical risks, extensions of COVID-19 related lockdowns and flare ups of the pandemic in the Northern Hemisphere during winter season remain uncertain. By taking these factors into account, the global economic growth forecast for both 2022 and 2023 are revised down to stand at 2.7% and 2.5%, respectively. For the US, GDP growth for 2022 is revised down to 1.5% and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.8%. In the Euro-zone, the 2022 GDP forecast is lowered to 3.0%, and for 2023 it is lowered to 0.3%. Japan’s economic growth forecast for 2022 is revised up to 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. China’s 2022 forecast is revised down to 3.1 % while for 2023 it stands at 4.8%. India’s 2022 forecast is revised down for both 2022 and 2023 to 6.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Brazil’s growth forecast for 2022 is unchanged at 1.5% while for 2023 it is revised down to 1.0%. Russia’s 2022 forecast is revised up to show a contraction of 5.7%, with growth of 0.2% expected in 2023. Downside risks to this forecast includes continued inflationary trends, further monetary actions by major central banks, aggravated geopolitical tensions, worsening of the pandemic in the northern hemisphere during winter months, tightening labour markets and further supply chain constraints. These ongoing risks and challenges, especially the economic dynamics in 4Q22 and 1Q23 will require close monitoring.
World Oil Demand
Global oil demand growth in 2022 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d to reflect the recent macroeconomic trends and oil demand developments in various regions. These developments include the extension of China’s zero-COVID-19 restrictions in some regions, economic challenges in OECD Europe, and inflationary pressures in other key economies, which have weighed on oil demand, especially in 2H22. With this, global oil demand for 2022 is now expected to grow by about 2.6 mb/d. In the OECD, oil demand growth is estimated at about 1.4 mb/d with the non-OECD at about 1.3 mb/d. For 2023, world oil demand growth is revised down to stand at about 2.3 mb/d. The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.4 mb/d, and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2022 is forecast at 1.9 mb/d. Upward revisions in Latin America were more than offset by downward revisions to Other Eurasia, OECD Europe and Other Asia. The main drivers of liquids supply growth for 2022 are expected to be the US, Canada, China, Guyana and Brazil, while production is expected to decline mainly in Norway and Thailand. For 2023, the non-OPEC liquids production growth forecast is adjusted down to 1.5 mb/d. The main drivers for 2023 growth are expected to be the US, Norway, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Guyana, with oil production declines mainly seen coming from Russia and Mexico. Uncertainty about the geopolitical situation remains high, and there is potential for further US shale liquid production. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids in 2022 are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d and then by 50 tb/d in 2023 to average 5.4 mb/d. OPEC-13 crude oil production in September increased by 146 tb/d mo-m to average 29.77 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins showed diverging trends in September. In the Atlantic Basin, margins increased as the start of peak refinery maintenance season led to a reduction in product output, exerting pressure on product balances, particularly gasoil. This provided solid support to products markets in both the US Gulf Coast and Northwest Europe, mainly for middle distillates. Meanwhile, refinery margins suffered losses in Asia, pressured by the recent release of China’s fourth batch of export quotas as it set the stage for stronger product exports in the near term. In addition, expectations of a fifth batch of export quotas exacerbated bearish product market sentiment within the region, leading ultimately to a downturn in Asian product performance all across the barrel, with the exception of naphtha, which continued to gain favour as the preferred petrochemical feedstock given high natural gas prices. In September, global refinery processing rates declined in line with historical trends, down by 1.2 mb/d in response to a rise in offline capacity amid the start of autumn maintenance season. Preliminary data points to refinery intakes declining further in the coming months by nearly 900 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates continued to gather strength in September, with gains seen on all major routes, supported increased demand on longer haul routes. Spot VLCCs rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 26%, while on the West Africa-to-East route they gained 23%. Suezmax and Aframax rates fell from the elevated levels seen since March, as the refinery maintenance season kicked off. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route declined by 7%, while Aframax spot rates on the Mediterranean routes lossed 13%. Clean rates saw diverging trends, with gains East of Suez and declines West of Suez.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data showed that the US crude imports to average 6.3 mb/d in September, while exports reached a record high of 4.0 mb/d. China’s crude imports averaged 9.5 mb/d. The increase came amid expectations for a pickup in domestic product demand in 4Q22 and as the potential for product exports increased. India’s crude imports fell to 4.1 mb/d in August, following strong performance seen over the last four months, but remained broadly in line with seasonal levels. India’s product exports increased, driven primarily by higher outflows of jet fuel and gasoil, despite the government imposing higher export duties. Japan’s crude imports showed strong performance in August, averaging just under 3.0 mb/d, the strongest figure since March 2020, supported by summer demand for gasoline and heathy fuel oil consumption for power generation. Preliminary figures show crude imports into the OECD Europe region remaining high compared with last year, despite steady m-o-m declines in seaborne Russian imports.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary August data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up 7.8 mb, m-o-m. At 2,712 mb, inventories were 111 mb less than the same month a year ago, 267 mb lower than the latest five-year average, and 273 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within components, crude and product stocks rose 6.8 mb and 1.0 mb, respectively, compared with the previous month. At 1,315 mb, OECD crude stocks were 0.7 mb lower than the same month last year, 105 mb below the latest five-year average and 133 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. OECD product stocks stood at 1,398 mb, representing a m-o-m deficit of 110 mb, 162 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.2 days m-o-m in August to stand at 59.3 days. This is 1.3 days below August 2021 levels, 5.0 days less than the latest five-year average and 3.8 days lower than the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 is revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 28.7 mb/d. This is around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2021. Demand for OPEC crude in 2023 is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the last month’s assessment to stand at 29.4 mb/d. This is around 0.8 mb/d higher than in 2022.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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