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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 20 January 22
CHINESE COAL JUMPS OVER 6% ON PRE-HOLIDAY SUPPLY WORRY - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures soared more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a level last seen in late November as investors grew concerned over ti ...
Thursday, 20 January 22
VIETNAM: COAL SECTOR SEES POSITIVE PROSPECT IN 2022 - VNA
With many signs of rising demand for coal in various economic sectors in 2022, the Vietnam National Coal – Mineral Industries Group (Vinacomi ...
Wednesday, 19 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the beginning of the year, we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards with sizable drops across all segments. Latest similar levels ...
Sunday, 09 January 22
INDONESIA MINISTER SAYS 'EMERGENCY OVER' ON COAL SUPPLY CRUNCH - REUTERS
Indonesia’s power emergency which has triggered a coal export ban is over but the government will still continue to discuss policies in this ...
Wednesday, 05 January 22
CHINA COAL FUTURES SURGE ON SUPPLY WORRIES AMID INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal futures surged by as much as 7.8per cent to kick off 2022 on concerns of supply disruptions after Indonesia, its biggest ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
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