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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 26 January 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While it is logical that most of the S&P reports of the first weeks of the year are linked to very limited activity as reflected in the weekly ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA: DME PROJECT IS ECONOMICALLY VIABLE AS STUDY DEMONSTRATES
The government is encouraging downstream coal processing or increase in coal added value, for example by turning coal into Dimethyl Ether (DME) to ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
COMMODITY PRICES COULD SOAR IF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CRISIS ESCALATES - ING
It appears that a number of commodity markets are starting to at least price in some geopolitical risk around the growing tension between Russia an ...
Wednesday, 26 January 22
INDONESIA'S COAL BAN SENDS PRICES SOARING, OTHER EXPORTERS FAIL TO STEP UP - REUTERS
Indonesia’s short-lived ban on exporting coal has sent ructions through the seaborne market for the fuel in Asia, with the fallout likely to ...
Friday, 21 January 22
CHINA'S POWER TRADING TARIFFS TO RISE IN 2022 - FITCH RATINGS
Rising trading volume and higher-than-benchmark tariffs in the 2022 bilateral contracts signed between Chinese power generation companies (gencos) ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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