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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 02 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Oil prices have rallied to the highest level since October 2014 breaking above $90/bbl recently. November 2014 was the point when OPEC unleashed pr ...
Monday, 31 January 22
HOW INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN COULD IMPACT INDIA - IEEFA
What does it mean for power generation and energy security?
Not long ago, India faced coal shortages due to a decline in domestic co ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
AIR PRODUCTS' COAL GASIFICATION PROPOSAL TRIGGERS LOOMING POLICY DISPUTES IN INDONESIA - IEEFA
Plan to substitute Indonesia’s LPG imports with dimethyl ether may be hard to realize due to conflicting business interests
In ...
Sunday, 30 January 22
ENDGAME FOR NEW COAL POWER PROJECTS? - IEEFA INDIA
Retired coal units must be replaced only by assets that can provide grid flexibility
Reportedly, an expert committee appointed by th ...
Thursday, 27 January 22
2022 - A YEAR OF REBALANCING FOR METALS AND MINING - WOOD MACKENZIE
If 2021 was the year of rebound for metals and mining (M&M) commodities, then 2022 is shaping as the year of rebalance, says Wood Mackenzie, a ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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