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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 23 December 21
INDONESIA’S 2022 COAL OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 637 MLN-664 MLN T- OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia’s 2022 coal output is estimated at between 637 million to 664 million tonnes based on production plans currently being finalised, s ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
VALE ANNOUNCES THE SALE OF ITS COAL ASSETS
Vale informs that, on this date, it has entered into a binding agreement with Vulcan to sell the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corrido ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
INDIA: CAPTIVE POWER PRODUCERS URGE GOVT TO ENSURE NORMAL COAL SUPPLIES - PTI
A captive power producers’ association has urged the government for 100 per cent normalisation of coal supply to captive power producers whil ...
Thursday, 23 December 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As an outstanding year for the dry bulk freight market comes to a close, so does a thriving year for the SnP market which can only be compared to 2 ...
Tuesday, 14 December 21
COAL LOCK-IN IN SOUTHEAST ASIA PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR THE ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK'S COAL RETIREMENT PLAN - IEEFA
In August, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced an ambitious plan to buy high emissions coal-fired power plants in Southeast Asia and retire ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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