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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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