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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Friday, 29 July 22
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IS SET TO RETURN TO ITS ALL-TIME HIGH IN 2022 - IEA
The world’s consumption of coal is set to rise slightly in 2022, taking it back to the record level it reached nearly a decade ago, according ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
CREW FAMILIARISATION IS CRITICAL WHEN TAKING OVER A VESSEL - WEST P&I CLUB
Knowledge to Elevate
When a vessel changes ownership and/or manager, it can take some considerable time before the new crew and mana ...
Thursday, 28 July 22
RETURN OF COAL A THREAT TO EUROPEAN COMPANIES' ESG RATINGS - REUTERS
European companies turning to coal as an alternative to Russian gas face a hit to their environmental, social and governance ratings, leaving them ...
Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal import ...
Tuesday, 26 July 22
CAP RUSSIA'S OIL PRICE NOW - PROJECT SYNDICATE
Though the price of oil has declined in recent weeks, it is still through the roof, filtering through to gasoline prices, and causing economic and ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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