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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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