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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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