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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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