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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Faced with uncertainty regarding the most cost-efficient alternative fuels and the future dominant method to reduce their greenhouse emissions, man ...
Friday, 22 July 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA CUTS 2022 COAL OUTPUT VIEW AS FLOODS, COVID BITE - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd YAL.AX cut its 2022 output forecast on Wednesday, signalling a hit from higher-than-expected rainfall, COVID-19-le ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
BOOST FOR BIOFUELS AS IMO REMOVES REGULATORY HURDLE - GARD
MARPOL Annex VI regulations were written for petroleum derived fuels but also apply to biofuels. It has been a challenge to meet the regulatory req ...
Wednesday, 20 July 22
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO THE EU INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RECENTLY
European countries have increased coal imports from Indonesia due to the energy crisis that hit the region after Russia cuts gas exports to Europe. ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET FIRMS THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
Firmer sentiment across both basins pushed the Capesize 5TC route average above the $20,000 threshold this week, closing at $24,209. A ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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