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Wednesday, 27 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the upcoming ban on Russian coal from the EU, which will be in full effect on August 10th, EU nations have been accelerating their coal imports as a direct reaction to the threat of a reduction in gas supply from Russia. The ban comes at a time when coal trade is already tight. As a result, thermal coal prices have been surging on the back of tight supply and geopolitical tensions.
Considering that the EU was importing approximately 35-40mn tonnes/year from Russia, these cargoes need to be supplied from elsewhere, namely US, Australia, South Africa, and Colombia. US accounts for the largest exporter of thermal coal to Europe at the moment, with exports surging to 11.2mn tonnes during 1H22, noting a 91.6% y-o-y increase. Amid intensified sanctions, US Government is exerting pressure on miners to increase production, therefore, trade flows from US to EU ports (mainly Netherlands and Germany) are expected to increase within 2H22.
High-quality Australian coal, on the other hand, is also benefiting from the surging demand in the EU. Imports from Australia surged to 10.2mn tonnes, marking a 27.8% y-o-y increase. For instance, thermal coal exports from Australia's Gladstone port in Queensland hit an 11-month high in June. Gladstone shipped 193,000 tonnes to the Netherlands, 76,400 tonnes to Poland, and 40,000 tonnes to Turkey. Trade flows from Australia, however, did not provide adequate relief as part of Australia’s production tied to long-term contracts.
Volumes from Colombia flowing to Europe recently are on an uptick. Although EU’s appetite for Colombian coal has declined during the past years, the country’s recovered production provided a steady flow of imports amid the current energy crunch, while more shipments are expected during the following months.
Lastly, South African coal has seen its exports recovering y-o-y amid the EU’s increased demand. However, the country’s issues with violence waves, logistics issues, and Covid-induced and weather-related disruptions in production have resulted in unpredictable trade flows. Given that the nation will be able to hold its export momentum, more shipments could be anticipated toward the EU during Q3.
In the meantime, new origins are emerging, like Tanzania, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, which are being positively considered as a backup measure. EU buyers have started exploring them as a viable plan of action due to competitive prices and quality. Over the past 2 months, a few shipments have been imported to the EU from Tanzania and Kazakhstan at competitive prices compared to the US and South African coal. If imports increase, they will provide relief to thermal coal prices.
Thermal coal is now traded at the range of $400/mt compared to $130/mt the year before, marking a 300% y-o-y increase. With supply being already tight and demand rising from the EU, a supply/demand imbalance will continue to add pressure on thermal coal prices. Given the EU will manage to establish alternative coal resources, prices may soften in the medium term.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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