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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
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