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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 02 August 24
COAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: FALLING PRICES AMID RECORD-HIGH OUTPUT - WORLD BANK
Coal prices inched up in May (m/m) following an 8 percent decline in 2024Q1. The Australian and South African benchmarks have plummeted more ...
Friday, 26 July 24
FUELEU MARITME IS COMING. IS YOUR CHARTERPARTY READY? - GARD
With less than six months to implementation of FuelEU Maritime in EU and EEA trades, there has been little published advice regarding how to alloca ...
Thursday, 04 July 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 14% IN JUNE - PTI
The country’s coal production rose by 14.49% to 84.63 million tonne (MT) in June. The country’s coal output was 73.92 MT in June last f ...
Tuesday, 02 July 24
NTPC CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT GROWS 15% IN Q1; DESPATCH RISES 17%
State-owned NTPC on Monday reported a 15 per cent year-on-year increase in the production of coal from captives mines to 9.862 metric million tonne ...
Friday, 28 June 24
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 400,000 MT OF MINIMUM 4000 NCV COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for total 400,000 MT of Low Calorific Value Coal for 5 years starting from July 2024 until ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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