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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
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