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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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